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Study · FIVE · 2026-10-17 · 3 min read · Rates, inflation and mortgages · World and macro

Warsh gives no October signal as the ten-year ends the week at 5.09

The Fed chair kept the 28 October decision open as import prices posted their largest yearly rise since 2022.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

RKT Rocket Companies, Inc.adjacent AGNC AGNC Investment Corp.adjacent

What changed since chapter twelve

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined on Friday 16 October in Bangkok to say what the Fed will do on 28 October, and the ten-year Treasury yield ended the week at 5.09 percent. ^{[16, 13, 1]}

The Treasury's table put the ten-year at 5.09 percent on Friday, from 5.10 on Thursday and 5.24 on Friday 9 October. By the desk's arithmetic, that is the lowest reading since Tuesday 22 September, when it was 4.96. The two-year was 4.74 percent, from 4.77, and the thirty-year was unchanged at 5.43. ^[1]

The inflation-protected ten-year, which pays a return above inflation, was 2.74 percent on Friday, from 2.78 on Thursday. The gap between the two, a rough gauge of expected inflation, widened from 2.32 points to 2.35, by the desk's arithmetic. ^{[1, 2]}

The record

Warsh spoke with Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, at the IMF and World Bank meetings, at 11:30 p.m. on Thursday New York time, the Fed's calendar shows. 'I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,' he said, Axios reported. He said the world had 'broadly conformed' to the Fed's expectations since September. ^{[3, 13]}

Warsh called the rate rises by central banks around the world 'a synchronous tightening in monetary policy' that leaves 'no free riders', China Daily reported. 'Inflation is not unique to the United States,' he said. The Fed raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday 16 September. ^{[16, 6]}

Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in September after edging up 0.1 percent in August, the Fed reported on Friday. Utilities output increased 3.5 percent and manufacturing output 0.3 percent. Capacity utilization, the share of plant capacity in use, moved up to 76.9 percent, 2.5 points below its 1972 to 2025 average. ^[4]

Import prices increased 1.1 percent in September and 8.1 percent over 12 months, the largest 12-month rise since the year ended July 2022, the BLS reported on Friday. Fuel import prices increased 4.8 percent in the month, and nonfuel import prices 0.7 percent. Export prices increased 2.2 percent. ^[5]

Who it reaches

Freddie Mac's survey of Thursday 15 October put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40 percent, unchanged on the week and up from 6.27 percent a year earlier. Rocket Companies' June quarterly report described that rate as remaining near 6.5 percent through the end of June. ^{[7, 11]}

Rocket Companies (RKT) is adjacent: its report says elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges 'weighed on purchase and refinance activity'. It carried mortgage servicing rights, its right to service loans it has sold, at a fair value of $18.9 billion on 30 June. ^[11]

AGNC Investment (AGNC) is adjacent: its June quarterly report estimates its tangible net book value per share 5.3 percent lower after an instant half-point rise in rates, and 1.5 percent higher after a half-point fall. The estimates assume a static portfolio and no change in mortgage spreads. ^[12]

Where the sources disagree

Axios wrote that Warsh 'offered no explicit signal about October', and CNBC's headline said he withheld a rate signal. NBC News read his line 'We made very clear we'd deliver price stability' as a sign that another rate rise is likely on the horizon, without saying when. ^{[13, 17, 15]}

Market-implied odds of an October rise differ by source and hour. Axios, citing CME FedWatch, reported 28 percent on Thursday afternoon, down from 50 after Wednesday's inflation report. Euronews, citing the same tool, reported about 30 percent. ^{[13, 14]}

What settles it next

The Fed's quiet period, when officials do not discuss policy, began on Saturday 17 October, NBC News and Euronews reported. The Treasury sells $13 billion of a reopened twenty-year bond on Wednesday 21 October and $26 billion of five-year inflation-protected notes on Thursday 22 October. Freddie Mac publishes its survey on Thursdays. ^{[15, 14, 8, 9, 7]}

The rate-setting committee decides at 2 p.m. on Wednesday 28 October, and Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m., the Fed's calendar shows. The BEA publishes third-quarter growth and September's personal income and outlays on Thursday 29 October. October's import prices and industrial production follow on Tuesday 17 November. ^{[3, 10, 5]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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