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Study · FIVE · 2026-10-23 · 4 min read · Rates and housing finance · Futures

Ten-year falls below 5 percent as a TIPS sale clears at 2.367

The steepest one-day drop on the Treasury's table since August 2024 came as tech shares sank, and the 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32 percent.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

LEN Lennar Corporationadjacent UWMC UWM Holdings Corporationadjacent

What changed since chapter sixteen

The ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96 percent on Thursday 22 October from 5.13 on Wednesday 21 October, the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates show. ^[1]

By the desk's arithmetic, the drop of 0.17 points is the largest one-day fall on that table since Friday 2 August 2024, and the first reading under 5 percent since Tuesday 22 September. The two-year went to 4.65 percent from 4.81, the five-year to 4.78 from 4.95 and the thirty-year to 5.29 from 5.42. ^[1]

Yahoo Finance reported that technology shares sank as worries over AI spending resurfaced after results from Meta and Tesla, and investors moved into bonds even as oil reached a five-month high. Saxo wrote that an AI-led selloff in shares, turmoil in French markets and renewed Middle East tensions drove the demand for safe assets. ^{[17, 18]}

The record

The inflation-protected five-year yield went to 2.33 percent from 2.55, and the ten-year to 2.64 from 2.76, the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates show. By the desk's arithmetic, the gap between the regular and protected ten-year yields, a rough gauge of expected inflation, narrowed to 2.32 points from 2.37. The same gap at five years widened to 2.45 from 2.40, also the desk's arithmetic, because the protected yield fell further. ^{[1, 2]}

The Treasury sold $26 billion of new five-year inflation-protected notes on Thursday at a high yield of 2.367 percent, with bids worth 2.41 times the amount on offer. The April sale of the same term cleared at 1.367 percent, with bids worth 2.57 times the amount. ^{[3, 4]}

By the desk's arithmetic on the two results, indirect bidders, customers who bid through a dealer or another submitter, took 62.0 percent of the competitive award, against 64.6 in April. Direct bidders took 32.4 percent, against 26.9, and primary dealers bidding for their own account 5.5 percent, against 8.5. ^{[3, 4, 5]}

Initial claims for unemployment benefits were 194,000 in the week ending Saturday 17 October, down 6,000 from the week before, the Labor Department's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims release said. The four-week average was 197,750. Insured unemployment was 1,728,000 in the week ending Saturday 10 October, an increase of 25,000. ^[7]

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32 percent as of Thursday 22 October, against 7.40 a week earlier and 6.19 a year earlier. Mortgage News Daily's index of the top-tier 30-year fixed rate was 7.30 percent, 0.10 lower on the day and the lowest since Wednesday 23 September, Matthew Graham wrote. ^{[8, 9]}

Who it reaches

Lennar (LEN) is adjacent: its report for the quarter ended Monday 31 August says the 30-year mortgage rate rose to about 7 percent and the ten-year yield to about 5 percent. Many prospective buyers 'are finding it harder to qualify for a mortgage', it says. Its home sale gross margin was 15.8 percent, against 17.5 a year earlier. ^[15]

UWM Holdings (UWMC) is adjacent: its June quarterly report calls it the largest wholesale mortgage lender in the US by closed loan volume. It says origination volumes 'tend to increase in declining interest rate environments and decrease in increasing rate environments'. ^[16]

Where the sources disagree

The size of the fall depends on when it was read. Yahoo Finance reported the ten-year 11 basis points lower at 5.02 percent during the session, a basis point being a hundredth of a percentage point. Saxo wrote that it was 16 basis points below Wednesday's close at 4.96 percent early on Friday, while the Treasury's table has 0.17 points, by the desk's arithmetic. ^{[17, 18, 1]}

Saxo called it the biggest daily decline since August 2024, and Yahoo Finance the biggest one-day drop in more than two years, which the Treasury's table bears out. Graham wrote that worries over financing costs at Coreweave and a few other companies spread to bigger technology names, and 'tech is tanking and bonds are picking up the slack.' Saxo also counted French turmoil and the Middle East among the causes. ^{[18, 17, 1, 9, 10]}

What settles it next

The Treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes on Monday 26 October, $70 billion of five-year notes on Tuesday 27 October and $44 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday 29 October, its data service lists. A $30 billion two-year floating-rate note follows on Wednesday 28 October, and Freddie Mac, which publishes each Thursday at noon Eastern, puts out its next survey on Thursday 29 October. ^{[6, 8]}

The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October, with the decision at 2 p.m. and the chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday. Its policy keeps officials silent from the second Saturday before a meeting to the end of the day after it, by the desk's reading Saturday 17 to Thursday 29 October. The target range has stood at 3.75 to 4 percent since Wednesday 16 September. ^{[12, 11, 13, 14]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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