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Study · FIVE · 2026-10-28 · 3 min read · Rates and housing finance · Futures

Five-year note sale clears at 4.845 percent as the Fed meets

Five-year bids covered the sale 2.33 times against 2.21 in September, and consumer confidence rebounded, a day before the Fed's statement.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

PHM Pultegroup, Inc.adjacent NVR NVR, Inc.adjacent

What changed since chapter twenty

The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 4.845 percent on Tuesday 27 October, against 5.033 percent at September's sale of the same size. ^{[1, 2]}

Bidders offered $2.33 for every dollar of notes sold, against $2.21 in September. On the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, the ten-year was 4.99 percent on Tuesday 27 October, against 5.00 on Monday 26 October. ^{[1, 2, 3]}

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, its release of Tuesday 27 October said. The Expectations Index, households' six-month outlook, recovered 6.9 points to 72.6. ^[4]

The record

On Tuesday 27 October the two-year was 4.70 percent against 4.68 on Monday, the five-year 4.82 against 4.84 and the thirty-year 5.30 against 5.31. The seven-year held at 4.91. The curve is read from dealers' quoted bids near 3:30 p.m., not from trades, the Treasury says. ^[3]

The Treasury Auction Results for the 5-Year Note list $162.8 billion of bids for $70.0 billion of notes, which carry a 4-3/4 percent coupon. Half the accepted competitive bids came in at or below 4.790 percent. The notes are issued on Monday 2 November and mature on Friday 31 October 2031. ^[1]

Indirect bidders, customers bidding through a dealer or another bidder, took 60.0 percent of the competitive awards, against 54.3 percent in September. Direct bidders took 29.4 percent against 29.9, and primary dealers 10.6 percent against 15.8. The shares are the desk's arithmetic on the Treasury's two results. ^{[1, 2, 13]}

The Census Bureau and HUD's Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026 put new single-family home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000. That is 0.6 percent below August's revised 680,000, a change the agencies say is not statistically significant. Homes for sale were 476,000, an 8.4 months' supply. ^[5]

The FHFA House Price Index was up 0.3 percent in August and 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the agency reported. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index posted a 2.1 percent annual gain for August, against 1.9 percent in July, S&P Dow Jones Indices said. ^{[6, 7]}

Freddie Mac's survey still stands at 7.32 percent for the 30-year fixed mortgage as of Thursday 22 October, against 6.19 percent a year earlier. The Fed's target range has been 3.75 to 4 percent since Wednesday 16 September. ^{[8, 12]}

Who it reaches

PulteGroup (PHM) is adjacent: its third-quarter release says homebuying demand is 'increasingly pressured by rising mortgage rates, widespread inflation, and global unrest'. Home sale revenues were $3.9 billion, 9 percent lower than a year earlier, the company reported. ^[18]

NVR (NVR) is adjacent as a builder and a mortgage lender. Its cancellation rate was 21 percent in the third quarter against 19 percent a year earlier, and mortgage closed loan production was $1.38 billion, 10 percent lower, NVR reported. ^[19]

Where the sources disagree

September's confidence reading moved: RTTNews reported it was originally 81.9, and the October release puts it at 84.2. The Conference Board calls that 'a slight upward revision'. ^{[4, 14]}

Intraday readings differ from the Treasury's table: Kiplinger reported the two-year at 4.733 percent around midday, against the Treasury's 4.70. On the odds of a rate increase, Kiplinger cited CME FedWatch at 88.4 percent for a hold, while Yahoo Finance reported traders saw 7 percent odds of a hike by the close. ^{[15, 16, 3]}

The Treasury adds one caution: the indirect bidder category 'does not indicate the domicile of the bidder'. CNBC's report of Tuesday 27 October was headlined that yields ticked higher as the meeting got underway. ^{[13, 17]}

What settles it next

On Wednesday 28 October, a $30 billion two-year floating-rate note closes at 11:30 a.m. Eastern. The Fed's calendar lists the end of its two-day meeting at 2:00 p.m., with the chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ^{[20, 10]}

On Thursday 29 October the BEA publishes GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 and Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Freddie Mac's next survey follows at noon, and $44 billion of seven-year notes close at 1:00 p.m. ^{[11, 8, 9]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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