The entrance to the Federal Reserve Board room in the Eccles Building, with the Board of Governors seal set in the marble floor and the meeting table visible through open doors · Britt Leckman, Federal Reserve, via Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

Study · FIVE · 2026-10-29 · 3 min read · Rates and housing finance · Futures

Fed holds at 3.75 to 4 percent as two officials vote to hike

The ten-year yield ended Wednesday at 5.05 percent against 4.99, and only seven of 2027's eight Fed meetings will set rates.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

PHM Pultegroup, Inc.adjacent NVR NVR, Inc.adjacent

What changed since chapter twenty-one

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its target range at 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday 28 October, and the ten-year Treasury yield was 5.05 percent that day against 4.99 on Tuesday. ^{[1, 6]}

The vote was 10 to 2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack preferred to raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point. In September the committee voted 12 to 0 for a quarter-point increase, and CNN and NBC News reported this was Cook's first dissent. ^{[1, 4, 13, 14]}

Chair Kevin Warsh said at his press conference that one of the eight meetings in 2027 will deal only with strategy, with no vote on the rate and no statement. He said he expects two strategy meetings and six for setting policy in 2028. ^[3]

The record

The statement now says economic activity 'is expanding at a strong pace', where September's said 'a solid pace'. September's line that the increase 'will support a timelier return' to the 2 percent goal became 'The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate'. ^{[1, 4]}

The implementation note keeps the interest the Fed pays on banks' reserve balances at 3.90 percent, effective Thursday 29 October. The primary credit rate, what banks pay to borrow from the Fed overnight, stays at 4.0 percent. ^[2]

On the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates for Wednesday 28 October, the two-year was 4.67 percent against 4.70 on Tuesday, the five-year 4.85 against 4.82 and the seven-year 4.95 against 4.91. The thirty-year was 5.37 against 5.30. The gap between the ten-year and the two-year widened to 0.38 percentage point from 0.29, by the desk's arithmetic. ^[6]

In his opening statement Warsh said financial and credit conditions 'have tightened for some businesses and households' since September. He also said 'Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks.' The Fed's calendar still lists eight meetings for 2027, each tentative until confirmed at the meeting before it. ^{[3, 5]}

Freddie Mac's survey stands at 7.32 percent for the 30-year fixed mortgage as of Thursday 22 October, against 7.40 a week earlier and 6.19 a year earlier. Home loan rates are not tied directly to the Fed's decisions and tend to track the ten-year yield, CNN reported. ^{[8, 13]}

Who it reaches

PulteGroup (PHM) is adjacent as a builder and a lender: its third-quarter release says homebuying demand is 'increasingly pressured by rising mortgage rates, widespread inflation, and global unrest'. Its mortgage capture rate, the share of buyers who finance through its own lender, was 85 percent, the company reported. ^[9]

NVR (NVR) is adjacent through the same two paths. New orders decreased 7 percent to 4,391 homes in the third quarter, the cancellation rate was 21 percent against 19 percent, and mortgage closed loan production was $1.38 billion, 10 percent lower, NVR reported. ^[10]

Where the sources disagree

The ten-year's close differs by source: the Treasury's table says 5.05 percent, Kiplinger reported 5.024 percent and the two-year at 4.706, and CNN's live page gave 5.02 percent in one entry and 5.05 in another. ^{[6, 12, 13]}

The schedule is told two ways. CNN and NBC News reported the rate-setting meetings going from eight to seven next year, while Warsh said 'eight meetings per year is the right number' with one kept for strategy. Yahoo Finance wrote that 2028 'might feature only six rate decisions', where Warsh said 'I expect'. ^{[3, 11, 13, 14]}

What settles it next

On Thursday 29 October the BEA publishes GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 and Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Freddie Mac's survey follows at noon, and competitive bids for $44 billion of seven-year notes close at 1:00 p.m. ^{[15, 8, 7]}

The committee's next meeting is Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December, with a Summary of Economic Projections. Futures traders put the chance of a quarter-point increase on 9 December at about 85 percent, Yahoo Finance reported from Bloomberg data. ^{[5, 11]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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