The Alexander Hamilton statue in front of the Treasury Building in Washington, photographed by Carol M. Highsmith · Carol M. Highsmith, Library of Congress, via Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

Study · FIVE · 2026-09-17 · 8 min read · Rates · World and macro

The ten-year yield closes above 5 percent, a first since 2023

Treasury's own daily table shows the closes at 5.00 and 5.01 percent on 15 and 16 September, the day the Fed raised its rate; beneath the headline sit the government's borrowing and interest bill, a 6.95 percent mortgage, a homebuilder's cut guidance and the housing figures that moved this week.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What happened

On Monday 14 September the yield on the ten-year Treasury note reached 5 percent. Reuters reported it at 5.01 percent at midday, up 3.51 basis points, the highest since October 2023 and what it called a closely watched psychological threshold; Yahoo Finance wrote that it climbed past 5 percent briefly and that the thirty-year touched 5.38 percent; NBC News put the thirty-year above 5.37 percent, its highest since 2007. Treasury's own end-of-day table then settled the week: the ten-year closed at 4.97 percent on Monday, 5.00 on Tuesday, 5.01 on Wednesday and 4.94 on Thursday, and the Federal Reserve's H.15 release carries the same figures. The two-year moved from 4.65 to 4.74 and back to 4.67 over the same days, the twenty-year sat between 5.37 and 5.40, and the thirty-year between 5.29 and 5.36. ^{[15, 16, 17, 1, 2]}

On Wednesday 16 September the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent, by a vote of 12 to 0, saying that inflation remains elevated, that the action will support a timelier return to its 2 percent goal, and that the committee will deliver price stability. Its projections put the median funds rate at 4.1 percent for the end of 2026, one more quarter point from here, at 4.1 for 2027 and 3.9 for 2028; inflation on the PCE measure at 3.7 percent this year and 2.3 next; growth at 2.3 percent and unemployment at 4.1. Eighteen participants submitted projections. ^{[3, 4]}

The mortgage followed the bond. Freddie Mac's survey on Thursday put the thirty-year fixed rate at 6.95 percent, up from 6.76 a week earlier and 6.26 a year ago, with the fifteen-year at 6.26. The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey for the week to 11 September, as HousingWire carried it, showed applications down 4.1 percent, refinancing down 9 percent in the week and 65 percent below a year earlier, purchases down 1 percent and 19 percent below a year earlier, and its own thirty-year contract rate at 6.97 percent, which its economist Joel Kan called the highest since May 2025. Lennar's results, filed on EDGAR on Tuesday, said the same thing from the seller's side: net earnings of 284 million dollars against 591 million a year before, deliveries down 3 percent, new orders down 9 percent, a home sales gross margin of 15.8 percent against 17.5, incentives of about 12 percent, and full-year deliveries now expected at 80,000 to 81,000 homes instead of 82,000 to 83,000; its executive chairman wrote that mortgage rates were approximately 6.8 percent at quarter end and even higher since. ^{[10, 11, 13]}

The reasons the press gave were three. Oil: Yahoo Finance and NBC News both reported Brent crude passing 109 dollars a barrel during Monday's session, and NBC reported diesel at a record 6.23 dollars a gallon on AAA's count, with KPMG's Diane Swonk saying the cost of diesel gets into just about everything. Inflation and the Fed: Yahoo Finance reported that Friday's August inflation reading pushed the market's odds of a hike to nearly 90 percent, in the words of Goldman Sachs' David Mericle. Supply: Reuters reported that heavy debt issuance, including by companies financing record AI-related spending, and Washington's widening deficits require a higher yield to keep drawing buyers, with a still resilient growth outlook underneath. ^{[15, 16, 17]}

The record

Treasury publishes the par yield curve every business day: the interest rate at which a new Treasury of each length would sell at its face value, computed from that day's trading. Its September table runs the ten-year from 4.79 percent on the first of the month to 4.83 on the 9th, 4.95 on the 10th, 4.97 on the 14th, 5.00 on the 15th and 5.01 on the 16th, 22 basis points in eleven trading days, before 4.94 on the 17th. The two-year went from 4.39 to 4.74 over the same span and the thirty-year from 5.27 to 5.35; the twenty-year's 5.40 on the 15th was the highest point on the curve. The Fed's H.15 release, dated 17 September, prints the same series as constant maturities: 4.74 for two years, 5.01 for ten and 5.35 for thirty on the 16th, with the effective funds rate at 3.63. ^{[1, 2]}

The auctions are the record of who paid what to lend. Treasury's auction data show 39 billion dollars of reopened ten-year notes sold on 9 September at a high yield of 4.834 percent, with bids of 2.71 times the amount sold; 22 billion of thirty-year bonds on the 10th at 5.308 percent, 2.61 times covered; 13 billion of twenty-year bonds on the 15th at 5.420 percent, 2.57 times covered; and 19 billion of the inflation-protected ten-year note on the 17th at a real yield of 2.653 percent, 2.24 times covered. The tentative schedule puts the two-year, five-year and seven-year notes on 22, 23 and 24 September, the next ten-year on 7 October, the thirty-year on 8 October and a new ten-year on 10 November. ^{[8, 9]}

The borrower behind the auctions states its needs each quarter. On 3 August Treasury said it expects to borrow 739 billion dollars of privately held net marketable debt in July to September, 68 billion more than it announced in May, and 628 billion in October to December, assuming cash balances of 950 and 850 billion. Its Fiscal Data tables put the interest expense on public issues for the eleven months to 31 August at 981.8 billion dollars by this desk's sum of the rows, of which notes 454.8 billion, the discount on bills 231.8 billion, bonds 162.9 billion, inflation compensation on protected securities 70.1 billion and floating-rate notes 24.3 billion; with the government account series the rows sum to 1,267.8 billion. The Congressional Budget Office's February outlook, as the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget summarized it, put net interest at 970 billion dollars and a record 3.2 percent of GDP in 2025, rising to 2.1 trillion and 4.6 percent by 2036, on a ten-year yield it assumed would average 4.1 percent in 2026; Wednesday's close was nine tenths of a point above that assumption. ^{[6, 7, 18]}

The housing record moved the same week. The Census Bureau's release of 17 September put building permits at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,394,000 in August, 2.7 percent below July and 3.5 percent above August 2025; housing starts at 1,275,000, 2.6 percent below July and 1.2 percent below a year earlier, both changes inside the survey's own margin of plus or minus 12.0 and 10.8 percent; single-family starts at 918,000, 7.6 percent above July with a margin of 14.0; and completions at 1,128,000, 11.9 percent below July and 27.1 percent below a year earlier with margins of 9.7 and 8.9 percent, both outside the margin. The release explains that its ranges are 90 percent confidence intervals and that where an interval includes zero there is insufficient statistical evidence that the change is different from zero. ^[12]

The banks' record is one quarter behind. The FDIC's profile of the second quarter, published 25 August, reported net income of 90.1 billion dollars across insured institutions, up 12 percent on the quarter, a return on assets of 1.37 percent, a net interest margin of 3.32 percent, one basis point higher than the quarter before, and domestic deposits up 0.8 percent, the eighth consecutive quarterly increase. Those figures predate the September move; the third-quarter profile arrives on the FDIC's usual rhythm, about eight weeks after the quarter ends. ^[14]

Who it reaches

Homebuilders first, because one of them has already filed the consequence. Lennar's exhibit states the chain in its own words: rates rising through the quarter, incentives of about 12 percent to close sales, orders down 9 percent, the year's deliveries cut by 2,000 homes. D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and KB Home sell into the same market that Freddie Mac measured at 6.95 percent on Thursday and that the Census counted at 1,275,000 starts and 1,128,000 completions; their own quarterly filings will state their versions on EDGAR. ^{[13, 10, 12]}

Mortgage lenders next. The MBA's refinancing index is the measure of their busiest business, and it stood 65 percent below a year earlier in the week to 11 September, with purchase applications 19 percent below; Rocket and UWM Holdings originate the loans that index counts. Joel Kan's words for the week were that higher mortgage rates caused many buyers to pause their purchase decisions. ^[11]

Banks and the trusts that hold mortgage bonds. The FDIC's 3.32 percent margin is the industry's, and JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp sit inside it; a two-year note at 4.74 percent against a funds rate of 3.75 to 4 percent is the shape of the curve they lend across. AGNC and Annaly hold agency mortgage bonds whose prices are set off the ten-year and the mortgage rate above it. And the largest borrower of all is the Treasury itself, whose interest rows above are the bill for the yields on this page. ^{[14, 1, 3, 7]}

Where the sources disagree

On whether 5 percent held. Monday's reports said the ten-year topped 5 percent briefly, at 5.01 at midday in Reuters' figure, and Yahoo Finance's headline kept the word briefly. Treasury's table shows Monday's close at 4.97 and then closes of 5.00 and 5.01 on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the level that was brief on Monday held at the close for two days before Thursday's 4.94. The phrase first since October 2023 belongs to the ten-year in Reuters and Yahoo Finance; NBC's highest since 2007 belongs to the thirty-year. ^{[15, 16, 17, 1]}

On which mortgage rate is the mortgage rate. Freddie Mac says 6.95 percent, from its Thursday survey; the MBA says 6.97, its members' contract rate for the week to 11 September; Lennar says approximately 6.8 percent at its quarter end on 31 August and even higher since. Three surveys, three dates, one direction. On the cause, Reuters weights supply and deficits, Yahoo Finance the inflation reading and the Fed, NBC the oil and the diesel; these are emphases rather than contradictions, and the record shows all three moving in the same week. ^{[10, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17]}

What settles it next

The dated documents. Treasury's par yield table every business day, and its auctions: the two-year, five-year and seven-year notes on 22, 23 and 24 September, the ten-year on 7 October, the thirty-year on 8 October, a new ten-year on 10 November, each with a high yield and a bid-to-cover ratio in the auction data the day it happens. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October without projections and on 8 and 9 December with them. Freddie Mac publishes every Thursday and the MBA every Wednesday. The Census's next monthly release carries September's starts and completions with their margins. The homebuilders, the lenders and the banks named above file their third-quarter reports on EDGAR under the SEC's deadlines, and the FDIC's third-quarter profile follows. Treasury's next borrowing estimate comes with the November refunding. Each of these is a document with a date, not a forecast of this site; when the next study in this series is written, it opens with what those documents changed. ^{[1, 8, 9, 5, 10, 11, 12, 14, 6]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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