Tehran's rooftops under clouds, with the Milad Tower and the Alborz mountains behind, in black and white · Julia Maudlin, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

Study · YANBU · 2026-10-26 · 4 min read · Oil shipping and energy security · World and macro

Qatari mediators and Mecca pact chiefs go to Tehran as oil eases

Two diplomatic tracks open in Tehran while Houthi fire at Riyadh and Iran's unconfirmed mine claims keep the strait and its bypass contested.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

INSW International Seaways, Inc.adjacent FRO Frontline Plcadjacent

What changed since chapter 20

Since chapter twenty, Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday 25 October in a US-coordinated effort to ease tensions, an official briefed on it told Reuters. ^{[3, 4]}

Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran on Monday 26 October, Reuters reported. Reuters called it the first high-level contact between Iran and all three members of the Mecca pact since the kingdom was drawn deeper into the conflict. ^{[5, 6]}

Oil eased on Monday morning from the prior week's highs. Reuters reported Brent crude futures down $2.21 at $114.51 a barrel at 04:26 GMT, and down $1.49 at $115.23 by 07:44 GMT. The Associated Press reported Brent down 1.7 percent at $109.86, against a Friday settlement of $116.72. ^{[7, 8, 9]}

The record

Saudi deputy minister Rayed Krimly said the visit supports 'the mediation efforts carried out by the State of Qatar and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan', AFP reported. Ali Bagheri Kani of Iran's Supreme National Security Council told state television the visitors would consult that council on regional security. ^{[6, 5]}

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday the talks would cover 'the repercussions of US and Israeli military action against Iran', Reuters reported. Under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August, an armed attack on one member counts as an attack on all three, Reuters reported. ^[5]

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday: 'Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same,' AFP reported. President Trump told Fox News on Sunday he was deciding whether to make a deal or 'finish them off', CBS News reported. ^[6]

Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resumed operations at two terminals on Sunday after halting on Saturday 10 October, Saudi Arabia said, Reuters reported. Flight tracking data from Flightradar24 showed little traffic there on Sunday, Reuters said. The Houthis said a strike on the airport that day 'successfully achieved its objective', and the coalition said it intercepted 12 missiles and two drones, CGTN reported. ^{[10, 11]}

Who it reaches

International Seaways (INSW) is adjacent: its second-quarter 10-Q said it expected its pools' voyage expenses to stay high, with extra war-risk premiums in waters bordering the Arabian Gulf or the Red Sea. Frontline (FRO) is adjacent: its second-quarter report said risk across Hormuz and the Red Sea was 'rapidly changing with little warning', weighing on fleet productivity. ^{[1, 2]}

Yanbu, the Red Sea hub, has let Riyadh route much of its crude around Hormuz, AFP reported, and the Houthis said they struck pumping stations on the East-West crude pipeline over the weekend, Reuters reported. Saudi Aramco will start storing crude in Singapore from the second half of 2027, the two countries' energy ministers said on Monday, Reuters reported. ^{[6, 8]}

Where the sources disagree

Iran's ambassador in Islamabad said Tehran told Pakistani mediators it would reopen the strait if the US blockade ended, the AP reported, and Al Arabiya reported a similar offer citing unnamed sources. A source quoted by Tasnim called Al Arabiya's account 'lies and fantasy' and said no new proposal was made, Iran International reported. That denial targeted Al Arabiya, not the ambassador. ^[3]

The oil reports differ in scale. The AP called Friday's $116.72 settlement Brent's highest since June 2022, while Reuters wrote of near six-month highs and Al Jazeera of the highest price since April. ^{[9, 8, 16]}

None of the reports read for this study carried a confirmation of the Guards' Friday claim of two mined supertankers from an owner, a flag state or a maritime authority. Of an earlier claim of 17 October, the Joint Maritime Information Center wrote 'there is no substantiation to these claims', gCaptain reported. ^{[15, 16]}

What settles it next

Egypt's parliament adjourned its vote on authorizing forces to support Saudi Arabia to Monday 26 October, with a two-thirds majority needed, Al Jazeera reported. No result was in the reports read for this study. ^[12]

President Masoud Pezeshkian leaves for Moscow on Monday night for the gas exporters' summit of Tuesday 27 October and talks with Vladimir Putin, Tasnim reported, according to Anadolu. No documents are scheduled to be signed, ambassador Kazem Jalali said, WANA reported. Trump has not dispelled market expectations that strikes on Iran could follow the midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November, analyst Vandana Hari said, Reuters reported. ^{[13, 14, 7]}

Sources

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