The Strait of Hormuz seen from orbit in 1982, with the Musandam Peninsula of Oman reaching toward the coast and islands of Iran · NASA, via Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

Study · YANBU · 2026-10-21 · 3 min read · Oil exports and shipping · World and macro

Coalition says it downed drones near Medina as Red Sea flows ease

Saudi Arabia's western outlet carried less crude on Kpler's newest average while attacks reached Medina, Riyadh and the mouth of Hormuz.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

DHT Dht Holdings, Inc.adjacent

What changed since chapter fifteen

Since chapter fifteen, Kpler's seven-day average for Red Sea oil volumes fell to 3,857 thousand barrels a day from 4,648 thousand, as new strikes were reported near Medina, over Riyadh and off Oman. ^{[1, 2, 8, 7, 10]}

The Saudi-led coalition said early on Wednesday 21 October that it intercepted five drones in the Medina and Eastern regions, Anadolu and Gulf Today reported. The Houthis' military spokesman denied launching any drones toward Medina that day, Gulf Today reported. On Tuesday 20 October the coalition said it destroyed a ballistic missile and a drone aimed at Riyadh, Saudi Gazette reported. ^{[9, 8, 7]}

The record

Kpler's briefing of Wednesday 21 October, on flow data to 19 October, put Hormuz clearance at 14,200 thousand barrels a day over seven days. That is about 83 percent of the pre-war baseline, Kpler said, with 13 tanker crossings a day against 50 before the war. ^[1]

The Red Sea average still sits about 38 percent above its pre-war baseline of 2,804 thousand barrels a day, Kpler said. It added that Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia opened a second front, and that Gulf to China freight for the largest tankers held at about $37 a barrel. ^[1]

The International Maritime Organization's confirmed list stood at 116 incidents and 24 seafarer deaths as at 20 October, up from 114 as at 19 October, the figure chapter fifteen reported. Its newest entry is the JIF BARRACUDA, damaged northeast of Khor Fakkan on 18 October with one seafarer injured; Maritime Executive identified it as a Dutch-flagged tug. ^{[3, 13]}

An unknown projectile struck a tanker 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, overlooking the strait, UKMTO said on Wednesday, Reuters reported. A fire was put out, the tanker was at anchor and all crew were reported safe. UKMTO's advisory of Tuesday reported a tanker's 'interaction' with military forces about 121 nautical miles east of Duqm on 19 October, The Peninsula reported. ^{[10, 11, 12]}

The Saudi cabinet said on Tuesday that global energy security, trade, supply chains and shipping are shared responsibilities needing international cooperation, Saudi Gazette reported. It welcomed a Security Council statement condemning Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy sites and threats to Red Sea shipping. ^[6]

Riyadh's airport reopened on 18 October, but operators still need prior permission, Aerospace Global News reported on Wednesday. Lufthansa suspended Riyadh services through 18 November and Cathay Pacific moved its return to the end of January 2027, the same report said. In Egypt, a parliamentary vote on sending forces to help defend Saudi Arabia was put off, CBS News reported. ^{[19, 18]}

Who it reaches

DHT Holdings (DHT) is adjacent: its fleet consists of crude tankers in the very large crude carrier class, it said on 12 October, the class whose Gulf to China freight Kpler tracks. It estimated its fleet's third-quarter charter earnings at $141,300 a day. ^{[5, 1]}

Refiners buying Saudi crude are reached through the Red Sea route; Kpler warned that any disruption to Saudi supply could restrict Chinese refinery runs. Airlines serving Riyadh are reached through the permission rule and their own suspensions. ^{[1, 19]}

Where the sources disagree

Middle East flows, pipelines included, topped 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October, over a 23.3 million pre-war average, by Kpler's count. The Times of India reported the figures from The Wall Street Journal. Kpler's own briefing puts its regional measure, oil only through the strait, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, at 22,687 thousand barrels a day, about 3 percent below baseline. ^{[17, 16, 1]}

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 20 October that three tankers hit naval mines south of the strait, AFP reported. None was named, and the Joint Maritime Information Center had called a 17 October mine claim unsubstantiated, gCaptain reported. ^{[14, 15]}

On Medina, the coalition reported interceptions and the Houthis denied any launch there, Gulf Today reported; neither account has been confirmed by the other side. ^{[8, 9]}

What settles it next

The Energy Information Administration's weekly import table, last released on 15 October, is due on Wednesday 21 October and was still to come when this chapter was written. Egypt's parliament put its vote off to 'next Monday', 26 October, CBS News reported on Tuesday, and Lufthansa's suspension runs to 18 November. Undated: Kpler's next briefing, the IMO's next update and UKMTO's next notices. ^{[4, 18, 19, 1, 3]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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