National Hurricane Center map of the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast showing Isaias's tropical storm force wind swath in orange and hurricane force swath in dark red, running from the southern Gulf n · National Hurricane Center, via Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

Study · GULF · 2026-10-11 · 8 min read · Oil, gas and refining · Futures

Isaias breaks up inland as Gulf oil shut-ins ease below 69 percent

The offshore regulator counted 68.76 percent of Gulf oil output and 57.44 percent of gas still shut in on Saturday 10 October, with 113 platforms evacuated, down from 129 on Friday; the Energy Department authorized an emergency loan of up to 4 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ExxonMobil and BP America; the Port of Mobile reopened at 4 p.m.; FPL said about 332,000 of its customers were still without power at 11:30 a.m. CDT, and Alabama Power said more than 130,000 of the more than 267,000 who lost power had been restored by 11 a.m., a Birmingham station reported.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What changed since chapter two

Chapter two ended on the Marine Minerals Administration's Friday 9 October count: 71.51 percent of the Gulf's daily oil output and 58.84 percent of its natural gas shut in, and 129 production platforms evacuated. The regulator's release dated Saturday 10 October, from operators' reports as of 11:00 a.m. CDT, counted personnel evacuated from 113 production platforms, 30.46 percent of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of America, and estimated that about 68.76 percent of current daily oil production, 1,402,692 barrels a day, and 57.44 percent of gas production, 1,229.2 million cubic feet a day, was shut in, from 31 company reports. By the desk's arithmetic that is 16 fewer evacuated platforms, and 2.75 percentage points and 56,122 barrels a day less oil shut in than on Friday, with gas 1.40 points and 30.0 million cubic feet a day lower. ^{[1, 2]}

The storm itself came apart over land. At 4 a.m. CDT on Saturday 10 October the National Hurricane Center's advisory 15 placed Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, a storm that has lost its tropical structure, about 25 miles south-southwest of Montgomery, Alabama, with 35 mph winds, and said all storm surge and tropical storm warnings had been discontinued. Its discussion said 'this is the last advisory on Isaias' and handed the system to the Weather Prediction Center from 10 a.m. CDT. That center's advisory 19, at 4 a.m. CDT on Sunday 11 October, placed the remnant about 65 miles southeast of Nashville, Tennessee, with 25 mph winds, moving northeast at 23 mph, and said significant river flooding across the western Florida Panhandle would crest on Sunday. ^{[3, 4, 5]}

Washington stepped in on Saturday. The Energy Department said it had authorized an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency stock of crude, 'to address supply disruptions due to inclement weather in the Gulf of America', up to 2 million barrels each for ExxonMobil and BP America. An exchange is a loan: the department said the companies will return the borrowed crude with additional premium barrels in 2027, and that ExxonMobil's exchange will accelerate deliveries of SPR crude already awarded. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the exchange was meant 'to help maintain refinery operations, limit disruptions to fuel supplies'. ^[6]

The record

The regulator's Saturday table still counts 8 of the 11 rigs that are moored or stand on the sea floor evacuated, 72.73 percent, unchanged from Friday, while the dynamically positioned rigs moved off location, the kind that hold their place with thrusters, fell back from 2 of 17 to 1. By the desk's arithmetic, 1,402,692 barrels over 68.76 percent implies about 2.04 million barrels a day of expected Gulf output, the same base as Friday's figures. The agency repeats that after the storm facilities will be inspected, that production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately once standard checks are completed, and that damaged facilities may take longer; it updates the statistics at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate. ^{[1, 2]}

Chevron posted what it called its final update on Isaias at 10:38 a.m. CDT on Saturday. It said it had continued production at four Chevron-operated platforms in the Gulf, that production at its other five facilities had been temporarily shut in, and that it was 'advancing efforts to redeploy personnel to our Gulf platforms and restore full production', with remobilization of crews continuing through Sunday. Of its onshore plants it said only that it continues 'to follow our established storm recovery procedures'. The update does not name the Pascagoula, Mississippi, refinery, which Bloomberg described on Friday as a 356,000 barrel a day plant in or near the projected path. ^{[7, 18]}

The Port of Mobile is open again. The Alabama Port Authority said, in an update stamped 7 p.m. CDT on Saturday, that the Coast Guard had established Port Condition NORMAL for the port effective 4 p.m. Saturday 10 October, and that all of the authority's terminal gates, vessel operations and administrative offices had returned to regular scheduling. WALA reported that the port had shut to vessel traffic early on Friday as the hurricane approached. ^{[10, 17]}

Florida Power and Light, which serves Northwest Florida, said that as of 11:30 a.m. CDT on Saturday it had restored power to more than 43,000 customers and that an estimated 332,000 remained without power, with a restoration workforce of 16,000 from 29 states. In a later release dated Saturday it said it had restored more than 98,000 customers across the Florida Panhandle and that it 'is targeting by the end of Monday to restore 95% of customers impacted by the storm', the company's own target. ^{[9, 8]}

Alabama Power reported that more than 130,000 customers had their power restored as of 11 a.m. Saturday, out of more than 267,000 who lost electricity in the storm, and that it had brought in more than 6,400 additional personnel, WBMA reported; the station said the company had not announced a statewide estimated restoration time. WSFA reported that more than 100,000 remained without power on Saturday night, according to Alabama Power, with 25 states providing resources. Company spokesperson Beth Thomas said late on Saturday afternoon that about 27,000 remained without power in southwest Alabama and that in the hardest hit areas restoration could take several days, WALA reported. ^{[14, 15, 16]}

Across the region, NBC News reported on Saturday night that a little under 490,000 utility customers were without power according to the tracker PowerOutage.us: just over 363,000 in Florida, nearly 97,000 in Alabama, about 14,500 in Georgia and smaller counts in the Carolinas and Tennessee. NBC News reported that four people had been killed according to officials, two in Florida and two in Alabama; WSFA reported that Governor Kay Ivey announced two deaths in Alabama and that Governor Ron DeSantis confirmed two in Florida. ^{[13, 15]}

Who it reaches

Chevron is reached offshore, where five of its facilities were shut in and four kept producing by its own account, and onshore, where its update speaks of storm recovery procedures without naming the Pascagoula refinery. ExxonMobil and BP are reached through the reserve: each may borrow up to 2 million barrels of government crude, the Energy Department said, to be paid back with premium barrels in 2027. ^{[7, 6, 18]}

On land the power companies carry the restoration. Florida Power and Light is a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, its release says. Southern Company's annual report says it owns all of the outstanding common stock of three traditional electric operating companies, Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power. The outage and restoration counts above are each company's own or a named tracker's, at the hour given. ^{[8, 11, 14]}

Where the sources disagree

On the size of the reserve loan, NBC News reported that 4 million barrels is roughly equivalent to two days of the production the storm shut down. By the desk's arithmetic on the regulator's figures, 4 million barrels is about 2.9 days of Saturday's 1,402,692 barrels a day and about 2.7 days of Friday's 1,458,814. The Energy Department's release itself gives no such comparison. ^{[13, 6, 1, 2]}

The Florida counts differ by source and hour: FPL's estimate of 332,000 without power at 11:30 a.m. CDT is the company's own, while the just over 363,000 NBC News cited on Saturday night is a state total from PowerOutage.us. FPL's own release also calls its 43,000 restorations 'more than 12%' of those affected; by the desk's arithmetic 43,000 of 375,000 is about 11.5 percent, a gap the release's 'more than' leaves open. The regulator described its Friday survey as reflecting '12 companies' reports' and its Saturday survey '31 company reports', without explaining the change. ^{[9, 13, 1, 2]}

What settles it next

The regulator said it would keep updating evacuation and shut-in statistics at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate, and Chevron said remobilization of its crews would continue through Sunday 11 October; the restart counts will come from those releases and from the operators after the inspections the agency describes. The Weather Prediction Center's next complete advisory was due at 10 a.m. CDT on Sunday, with the river crest in the western Florida Panhandle expected that day. ^{[1, 7, 5]}

The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum report for the week ending Friday 9 October is due on Thursday 15 October at 12:00 p.m. eastern time, an alternate date because of Columbus Day, and covers the week of landfall. FPL's own restoration target runs to the end of Monday 12 October, and the barrels lent from the reserve are due back in 2027, the Energy Department said. ^{[12, 8, 6]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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