BP's Thunder Horse semisubmersible production platform in the Gulf, seen from the air: a deck of cranes, a drilling derrick and process equipment on four orange columns standing in dark blue water · Andyminicooper, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 3.0

Study · GULF · 2026-10-12 · 8 min read · Oil, gas and refining · Futures

Gulf crews return as oil shut-ins fall below 58 percent

The offshore regulator counted 32 production platforms still evacuated on Sunday 11 October, down from 113 on Saturday, with 57.54 percent of Gulf oil output and 49.11 percent of gas still shut in; Shell said its five evacuated assets had no storm damage and BP said it was working to restart Na Kika and Thunder Horse; the Coast Guard listed Mobile, Pascagoula and Gulfport open; FPL cut its Monday restoration target from 95 to 85 percent of the 435,000 customers the storm reached.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What changed since chapter three

Chapter three ended on the Marine Minerals Administration's Saturday 10 October count: 113 production platforms evacuated, 68.76 percent of the Gulf's daily oil output and 57.44 percent of its natural gas shut in. The regulator's release dated Sunday 11 October, from operators' reports as of 11:00 a.m. CDT, counted personnel still evacuated from 32 production platforms, 8.63 percent of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf of America, and estimated that about 57.54 percent of current daily oil production, 1,173,863 barrels a day, and 49.11 percent of gas production, 1,051 million cubic feet a day, remained shut in, from 31 company reports. By the desk's arithmetic that is 81 fewer evacuated platforms than on Saturday, and 11.22 percentage points and 228,829 barrels a day less oil shut in, with gas 8.33 points and 178.2 million cubic feet a day lower. ^{[1, 2]}

The operators said their crews were going back. Shell said at 09:00 on Saturday that it was beginning to redeploy personnel to its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox assets, and at 21:00 CST, by its own stamp, that 'there is no storm damage' to those five and that redeployment was continuing. BP said, in an update it marked as final and dated Saturday 10 October, that it was 'returning personnel and working to safely restart production' at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms, the two it had emptied and shut in, and returning non-essential staff to Argos, Atlantis and Mad Dog. ^{[6, 7, 8]}

The weather agencies have closed their record on the storm. The Weather Prediction Center's advisory 20, at 11 a.m. EDT on Sunday 11 October, placed Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias about 180 miles northeast of Nashville, Tennessee, with 25 mph winds, said the low would dissipate over West Virginia that evening, and said: 'This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction Center on this system.' The National Hurricane Center's outlook at 2 a.m. EDT on Monday 12 October names one area of low pressure, west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic, and gives it a 20 percent chance of forming over seven days. ^{[3, 4, 5]}

The record

The Sunday table reads differently from Saturday's in its rigs too. One of the 11 rigs that are moored or stand on the sea floor was still evacuated, 9.09 percent, against 8 on Saturday, and none of the 17 dynamically positioned rigs, the kind that hold their place with thrusters, was off location, against one. By the desk's arithmetic, 1,173,863 barrels over 57.54 percent implies about 2.04 million barrels a day of expected Gulf output, the same base as Saturday's figures. The regulator says its shut-in figures are estimates built on what operators expected to produce that day, that facilities are inspected after the storm, that undamaged ones are brought back online immediately once standard checks are done, and that damaged ones may take longer. It said it would update the statistics at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate. ^{[1, 2]}

Chevron's last word remains its update of 10:38 a.m. CDT on Saturday: four of its Gulf platforms kept producing, five other facilities were temporarily shut in, and remobilization of its crews 'will continue through Sunday'. Of its onshore plants it says only that it continues to follow 'established storm recovery procedures'; it does not name the Pascagoula refinery. NPR reported before landfall that the Chevron Pascagoula plant and the Vertex refinery in Alabama were the two significant refineries on the storm's path, and that S&P Global Energy's Debnil Chowdhury said they 'account for about 2.5% of total U.S. refining capacity'. ^{[9, 19]}

The ports are open. The Coast Guard's port status table for its Mobile sector, last changed on Sunday 11 October, lists Gulfport, Mobile, Panama City, Pascagoula and Pensacola as open, each with a reference to the same marine safety bulletin, 135-26. The Energy Department's emergency loan of up to 4 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency stock of crude, stands as announced on Saturday, up to 2 million barrels each for ExxonMobil and BP America, returned with premium barrels in 2027; the department's newsroom showed no newer Isaias release by early Monday. By the desk's arithmetic, 4 million barrels is about 3.4 days of Sunday's 1,173,863 barrels a day shut in. ^{[13, 10, 1]}

On land, Florida Power and Light said on Sunday 11 October that it had restored more than 188,000 customers in the first 24 hours, 'nearly 45%' of those affected. In a later release it said that as of 10 p.m. CDT it had restored more than 70 percent of the 435,000 customers the storm reached, that Bay, Washington, Holmes, Walton and Jackson counties were essentially restored, and that it 'now expects 85% will be restored by end of day Monday', which it called a revision of its initial estimate of 95 percent. It said the hardest hit parts of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties would come back on Tuesday 13 October. FPL's chief executive, Scott Bores, said damage assessments found the tree damage to the system 'much more severe and widespread' than first estimates showed. ^{[12, 11]}

Alabama Power said that as of Sunday it had restored power to 90 percent of 'residents who were affected by outages' and that 25 states had sent resources, WSFA reported. Across the region, the Associated Press reported that about 226,000 customers remained without power on Sunday evening in the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama, according to a tracking site, and that at least four deaths were linked to Isaias, two in Escambia County, Florida, by the sheriff's account, and two in Alabama, in Birmingham and Barbour County, by the city's fire chief and the state's emergency management agency. In Mississippi, WLOX reported that nearly 1,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm on Friday night in Harrison, Jackson and George counties, and that Mississippi Power counted about 50 at the height of the storm, most since restored. ^{[17, 16, 18]}

Who it reaches

Shell, BP and Chevron are reached offshore, each by its own account: Shell's five evacuated assets report no storm damage and crews returning, BP is working to restart its two shut platforms, and Chevron's five shut facilities were awaiting crews remobilized through Sunday. BP and ExxonMobil are also reached through the reserve, each able to borrow up to 2 million barrels of government crude, the Energy Department said. Chevron's Pascagoula refinery is on the coast the storm crossed, and its updates do not say how it fared. ^{[6, 8, 9, 10, 19]}

The power companies carry the restoration. Florida Power and Light is a subsidiary of NextEra Energy, its release says. Southern Company's annual report names Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power as its traditional electric operating companies and says it owns all of their common stock. The outage counts above are each company's own or a named report's, at the hour given. ^{[11, 14, 17, 18]}

Where the sources disagree

The regulator's two measures moved at different speeds. Evacuated platforms were down from 30.46 percent of the manned total to 8.63 percent in a day, while the oil shut in was down only from 68.76 to 57.54 percent. The release does not explain the gap; it says only that its production figures are operators' estimates of what they expected to produce, so a platform with its crew back aboard is not, in its terms, the same thing as a platform producing. ^{[1, 2]}

FPL's own figures do not line up exactly. Its first Sunday release calls 188,000 restorations 'nearly 45%' of customers affected; by the desk's arithmetic 188,000 is about 43.2 percent of the 435,000 its later release gives, and 45 percent would imply a base near 418,000. The later release also moved the Monday goal from 95 to 85 percent, which by the desk's arithmetic is about 369,750 of 435,000 customers rather than about 413,250. The Associated Press figure of about 226,000 without power on Sunday evening is a two-state count from a tracking site, not a utility's own. ^{[12, 11, 16]}

Two smaller seams. Shell's fifth update is stamped 19:00 CST in its heading and says in its body that it was issued at 21:00 CST. The Coast Guard's table lists Pensacola as open while its condition column for that port still reads WHISKEY, a combination the table does not explain. ^{[6, 13]}

What settles it next

The regulator said it would keep updating evacuation and shut-in statistics at 1 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate; the next count will show how much of the 57.54 percent remained offline after Sunday's restaffing. FPL's own schedule runs to the end of Monday 12 October for 85 percent of affected customers and to Tuesday 13 October for the hardest hit parts of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. ^{[1, 11]}

The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum report for the week ending Friday 9 October is due on Thursday 15 October, an alternate date because of Columbus Day, and covers the week of landfall. The barrels lent from the reserve are due back in 2027, the Energy Department said. ^{[15, 10]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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