A new wood-frame house being built along Perry Drive in Ewing Township, New Jersey, in October 2024 · Famartin, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

Study · HOUSE · 2026-09-24 · 8 min read · Homebuilding and mortgages · Stocks

New-home sales rise 6.4 percent, well inside the survey's margin

What changed since 23 September: the Census Bureau's August sales report, Freddie Mac's Thursday survey at 7.03 percent, a seven-year auction at 5.085 with the Treasury curve at highs its record has not shown since 2007, and two Fed presidents saying more tightening may be warranted; the builders' own filed words are unchanged.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What happened

At ten o'clock on Thursday 24 September the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that new single-family houses sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, 6.4 percent above July's 643,000, with a margin of error of 19.5 points either way, and 2.0 percent below the 698,000 of August 2025, with a margin of 15.7. There were 483,000 new houses for sale at the end of the month, virtually unchanged from July and 2.0 percent fewer than a year earlier, which is 8.5 months of supply at August's pace, down from 9.0 in July. The median sales price was 393,700 dollars, 0.4 percent above July and 5.8 percent below the 417,900 of a year earlier, with a margin of 8.2 either way; the average price was 478,700, 8.8 percent below a year earlier. The next report, for September, is due on 27 October. ^[1]

The same morning Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03 percent, up from 6.95 the week before and from 6.30 a year earlier, and the 15-year at 6.42, from 6.26 and 5.49. 'The housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate,' the company said. The Mortgage Bankers Association's contract rate on conforming 30-year loans, reported on Wednesday for the week to 18 September, was 7.12 percent, up from 6.97, with applications down 1.5 percent and adjustable-rate loans at 9.8 percent of the total. ^{[2, 3]}

This is the second chapter of a series that opened on 23 September, when the record was the association's 7.12 percent, Freddie Mac's 6.95, KB Home's and Lennar's filed results, the realtors' August sales and Governor Barr's speech on the cost of shelter. What has changed since is the sales report itself, Freddie Mac's rate crossing 7, a seven-year Treasury auction at 5.085 percent with the ten-year at 5.18 and the thirty-year at 5.47 on Treasury's curve, Philadelphia's Anna Paulson saying 'some modest further tightening may be warranted' and New York's John Williams calling another increase this year 'reasonable', and jobless claims at 197,000. The builders have filed nothing new; their words below are the ones on file. ^{[1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 12, 8]}

The record

Inside the sales report the regions moved in different directions. The National Association of Home Builders' economists reported from the same release that sales in the Midwest rose 84.9 percent on the month to 98,000 and were 22.5 percent higher than a year earlier, the South rose 6.9 percent to 451,000 and 3.4 percent on the year, while the Northeast fell 36.1 percent to 23,000, 20.7 percent below a year earlier, and the West fell 15.2 percent to 112,000, 26.8 percent below. Of the 483,000 houses for sale, 112,000 were completed and ready to occupy on an unadjusted count. By price, 22 percent of the houses sold were under 300,000 dollars, 50 percent between 300,000 and 499,999, and 26 percent above 500,000. The association's post says year-to-date sales are lower than in 2025 and that 'elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continue to constrain demand', and it notes that the average 30-year rate had reached 6.95 percent in mid-September, 'its highest level since January 2025'. ^{[9, 1]}

Weekly Real Estate News read the margins: the 6.4 percent monthly gain and the 5.8 percent annual price decline, it wrote, 'were not statistically distinguishable from zero' at the bureau's own confidence level, which the release states as 90 percent. That is the release's own arithmetic, not a dispute with it: a range of minus 13.1 to plus 25.9 percent on the monthly change contains no change. ^{[10, 1]}

The rates behind the mortgage moved again this week. Treasury's daily par curve closed Thursday with the ten-year at 5.18 percent and the thirty-year at 5.47, from 5.11 and 5.40 on Wednesday and 5.01 and 5.35 on 16 September, the day the Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4 percent; on Treasury's own record the ten-year has not closed as high since July 2007. The seven-year note sold at 5.085 percent on Thursday with 2.42 dollars bid for every dollar on offer, according to the results sheet. The Fed's September projections put the median participant's policy rate at 4.1 percent at the end of this year and next, and the committee meets on 27 and 28 October and 8 and 9 December. ^{[6, 7, 13, 14]}

The builders' record is unchanged since the first chapter. KB Home reported on 22 September that revenues in its quarter to 31 August were down 20 percent, net orders down 12 percent, the housing gross margin 16.5 percent against 18.2, and its backlog up 2 percent, the first increase in four years, and said it was operating in a market 'with conditions weakening since our June earnings report'. Lennar reported on 16 September net earnings of 284 million dollars, orders down 9 percent, deliveries down 3 percent and a gross margin of 15.8 percent, and its chief executive said the environment 'has deteriorated since our last earnings call' with the 30-year rate 'approximately 6.8 percent at quarter end and even higher since'. The Labor Department's 197,000 initial claims for the week to 19 September, 1,000 fewer than the week before, are the labor market Freddie Mac's economist calls solid. ^{[4, 5, 8, 2]}

Who it reaches

Lennar and KB Home are direct: the figures above are their own, filed with the SEC, and each has a file on this site with its record. D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, NVR and Meritage build for the same buyers, who borrow at the rates the association and Freddie Mac report; Builders FirstSource supplies the lumber and components the houses consume. Rocket and UWM write the mortgages the association's index counts. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp write and hold mortgages priced off the curve Treasury publishes, and AGNC and Annaly own the mortgage bonds whose value moves with it. ^{[4, 5, 1, 2, 3, 6]}

One point of timing matters for all of them. The August sales are contracts signed in August, before the rate reached the mid-September level the home builders' association calls the highest since January 2025 and before Freddie Mac's survey crossed 7 percent; the September report on 27 October is the first that will show sales signed at these rates. ^{[1, 9, 2]}

Where the sources disagree

On the sales figure. The bureau prints a 6.4 percent rise; Weekly Real Estate News reads the margin and calls it indistinguishable from zero; the builders' association reads the same number as a gain that masks weakness, with year-to-date sales below 2025 and 112,000 finished houses waiting. All three are reading one release, and the release's own margin is wide enough to hold all three readings. ^{[1, 10, 9]}

On the price. The median fell 5.8 percent on the year and the average 8.8, according to the release, and the association's distribution shows a fifth of sales under 300,000 dollars. The release's margin on the annual median change, 8.2 points, means the decline too is inside the range in which no change is possible; the average, which the bureau does not bracket, fell further, which is consistent with more of the sales coming at the cheaper end but is not proof of it. ^{[1, 9]}

On the rate. Freddie Mac's 7.03 percent is its survey in the week to 24 September, the association's 7.12 is the contract rate on conforming applications in the week to 18 September, and Lennar's 'approximately 6.8 percent' is the rate at 31 August 'and even higher since'; they are three measures on three dates, as the first chapter said, and they still climb in the order of their dates. Behind them Treasury's ten-year rose 17 basis points from 16 September to 24 September. Freddie Mac's economist calls the labor market solid and the economy healthy; Paulson calls underlying inflation 'stubbornly elevated' in a range of 2.5 to 3 percent. Both are describing the same economy from different desks, and the mortgage rate is what the second view does to the first. ^{[2, 3, 5, 6, 11]}

What settles it next

The dated records to read. The bureau's September starts on 20 October and its September sales on 27 October, each with its margins. Freddie Mac's survey every Thursday and the association's every Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee's meeting of 27 and 28 October, the next at which a rate decision is taken, and its December meeting with new projections. And the companies' own filings on EDGAR: D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, NVR and Meritage report the quarter to September in October, Lennar's fourth quarter follows in December and KB Home's in January. ^{[1, 2, 3, 14, 4, 5]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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