A new house under construction in Pittsfield Township, Michigan, photographed in August 2011 · Dwight Burdette, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 3.0

Study · HOUSE · 2026-09-29 · 8 min read · Housing and mortgages · World and macro

Home prices speed up in July but still trail inflation

What changed since 24 September: S&P's national index rose 1.9 percent on the year to July and the FHFA's 2.6 percent, both faster than in June, while S&P counts a fourteenth month of decline after inflation; one daily survey put the 30-year mortgage at 7.50 percent on Monday for the first time since April 2024, the Conference Board's households trimmed their plans to buy, and three documents on 27 October will show whether the builders' price cuts and the resale gains keep pulling apart.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What happened

At nine o'clock on Tuesday 29 September S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that its S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index was 1.9 percent higher in July than a year earlier, up from a 1.6 percent annual gain in June, and that the 20-city composite rose 2.5 percent on the year and the 10-city 3.4. The same morning the Federal Housing Finance Agency said its house price index rose 0.3 percent from June and 2.6 percent from July 2025, with June's reading unchanged at zero. ^{[1, 2]}

This is the third chapter of a series that opened on 23 September with the mortgage back above 7 percent and continued on 24 September with August's new-home sales. What has changed since: the two price indexes above; a daily rate survey that put the average 30-year loan at 7.50 percent on Monday; Treasury's curve, which closed Monday with the ten-year at 5.24 percent and the thirty-year at 5.56; and the Conference Board's households, whose plans to buy a home slipped. The builders have filed nothing new; their words below are the ones on file. ^{[1, 2, 7, 8, 4]}

The record

S&P's release puts a number on what the gain is worth after prices in general. 'While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of real declines, slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap,' said Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices; July's consumer prices were 3.4 percent higher on the year, she said, and core prices, without food and energy, 2.5 percent. ^[1]

The map splits in two. Chicago led the 20 cities for a fifth month with a 6.9 percent annual gain, followed by New York at 5.8 and Cleveland at 4.2, while Seattle fell 1.6 percent, Las Vegas 1.3 and Denver 1.1, S&P reported; six of its eight eastern markets gained faster in July than in June against two of the eight western ones. The FHFA's census divisions show the same line: the Middle Atlantic up 6.3 percent on the year and the Mountain division up 0.6, with monthly changes from minus 0.8 to plus 1.5 percent. ^{[1, 2]}

The index figures carry their own cautions. Before seasonal adjustment the national index rose only 0.12 percent on the month and the 20-city composite slipped 0.01 percent, against gains of 0.3 percent after adjustment, which S&P said 'suggests seasonal factors weighed heavily on home prices in July'. S&P could not produce a valid July reading for Detroit because of recording delays in Wayne County, and Weekly Real Estate News noted that Case-Shiller's July figure is a three-month moving average of repeat sales, so it carries May and June transactions too. ^{[1, 12]}

The contracts came first. The National Association of Realtors reported on 17 September that pending sales of existing homes rose 0.3 percent in August and were 4.7 percent below a year earlier, lower on the year in all four regions. Its chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said higher mortgage rates were 'offsetting the increased buying power created by job gains and income growth outpacing home price growth', and that contract signings are 'running roughly 30% below where they were in the years leading up to the pandemic'. ^[5]

The rate kept climbing after the last chapter. Freddie Mac's survey of 24 September put the 30-year average at 7.03 percent, from 6.95 a week earlier and 6.30 a year before, and the Mortgage Bankers Association's contract rate for the week to 18 September was 7.12 percent, which its chief economist called 'the highest level since May 2024'. Mortgage News Daily's daily rate index reported on Monday 28 September: 'The average lender is now at 7.50% for the first time since April 30, 2024.' ^{[6, 13, 7]}

The households are hesitating. The Conference Board said on Tuesday that plans to buy homes and cars declined slightly on a six-month average, and that the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next year jumped 5.2 points to 68.4 percent. ^[4]

Who it reaches

Lennar and KB Home are direct: their own filed words are the builders' side of the ledger. Lennar reported that its average sales price of $372,000 reflected 'approximately 12.0% in incentives, along with base price adjustments necessary to sustain volume in a market where affordability remains the defining constraint', and that 'consumer confidence has declined as rates and affordability have driven more consumers to slow their purchase decisions'. KB Home's executive chairman, Jeffrey Mezger, said conditions had been 'weakening since our June earnings report' and that higher mortgage interest rates 'have further pressured affordability'. ^{[9, 10]}

D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, NVR and Meritage build for the same buyers, who borrow at the rates the three surveys report. Rocket and UWM write those mortgages. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo write and hold mortgages priced off the curve Treasury publishes, and AGNC and Annaly own mortgage bonds whose value moves with it. ^{[6, 13, 7, 8]}

Where the sources disagree

On the price of a house. The resale indexes rose faster in July, while the new-house side fell: the Census Bureau's August median for new homes was 5.8 percent below a year earlier, and Lennar sold with about 12 percent in incentives. The two are different markets, and the documents do not claim otherwise; they show the two sides moving apart in the same summer. ^{[1, 2, 11, 9]}

On which index to believe. S&P's national 1.9 percent and the FHFA's 2.6 percent are built differently: Case-Shiller pairs repeat sales of the same houses and, as Weekly Real Estate News notes, averages them over three months, while the FHFA describes its own as a weighted, repeat-sales index of single-family house prices. Weekly Real Estate News put it plainly: the two 'differ in methodology and coverage, so their annual rates should not be treated as competing estimates', though they point the same way. ^{[12, 1, 3]}

On the rate. Freddie Mac's 7.03 percent averages the rates on loans submitted to it from the prior Thursday through Wednesday 23 September; the association's 7.12 is a contract rate on applications in the week to 18 September; Mortgage News Daily's 7.50 is Monday's reading of its daily index of what the average lender quotes, on the day Treasury's own table puts the ten-year at 5.24 percent. Three measures on three dates, and they rise in the order of their dates. ^{[6, 13, 7, 8]}

What settles it next

The dated records to read. Freddie Mac's survey every Thursday at noon Eastern and the association's every Wednesday. On 27 October three documents land on the same morning: S&P's August index at nine, the FHFA's August index, and the Census Bureau's September new-home sales, the first to cover a month in which the weekly surveys crossed 7 percent. The Fed's committee meets on 27 and 28 October. And the builders' own next reports on EDGAR, where the incentives and the orders are written down. ^{[6, 13, 1, 3, 11, 14]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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