A thermal power plant with tall striped chimneys lit up at night, its lights reflected in a reservoir in the foreground; the Commons file names it the Zmiiv thermal power plant in Ukraine, photographe · Maksim Sidorov, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 3.0

Article · 2026-10-12 · 6 min read · Diesel and refined fuels · World and macro

Trump claims an energy ceasefire; Moscow has not confirmed it

On Sunday 11 October President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an 'energy ceasefire' taking effect immediately, two days after the Treasury licensed Russian diesel; on Monday 12 October President Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports it but learned of it from the media and had not heard Russia approve it, the Kremlin's spokesman said only that contacts are ongoing, and Ukrainian officials reported Russian strikes on energy sites after the announcement.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What changed since Friday

On Friday 9 October, after a call between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, a standing permission that sets the Russia sanctions aside for transactions 'related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin' until 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on Wednesday 7 April 2027. The desk's piece of Sunday 11 October reported that license and the tonnage the President named. ^[1]

On Sunday morning, 11 October, the President posted that a truce on energy targets was in force. NBC News and CNN quoted the post: 'Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!' The Associated Press reported that he offered no details, and NBC News reported that he did not say what the ceasefire might include. ^{[3, 4, 5]}

What each side said

Ukraine answered in steps. A Ukrainian official told CNN, asked about the post: 'We just read it as you did.' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on Sunday, according to CNN: 'Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well. We are awaiting details from the American side'. In his evening address, the AP reported, he said Ukraine was 'ready to refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure', and that it counted 'on the same readiness from Russia'. ^{[3, 5]}

On Monday 12 October, speaking by video to the Warsaw Security Forum, Mr. Zelenskyy said Ukraine did not know of it in advance and learned of it 'from the media', and that Ukraine does 'support it, but I have not heard approval of this proposal from the Russian side, and this looks strange', according to NBC News. CNN reported that he said on Monday Kyiv would abide by the ceasefire if Russia does too. ^{[4, 5]}

Moscow has said little. The AP reported on Sunday that Moscow did not immediately comment, and AFP reported on Monday that Russia had yet to confirm its agreement. NBC News reported that the Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that 'contacts are ongoing', and that the Kremlin would keep reporters informed when it had anything to say on the topic. The Kremlin's English news list, read on the morning of Monday 12 October, carried no readout of a new call and no statement on a ceasefire; its newest items on the subject were Mr. Putin's statement and Yury Ushakov's comment on the diesel call, both dated Friday 9 October. ^{[2, 3, 4, 6]}

Ukraine says the strikes did not stop. The AP reported Mr. Zelenskyy as saying on Sunday evening that 'a power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening', and that his office confirmed the Kharkiv attack came after the President's post. NBC News reported that Ukrainian officials said Russia struck again on Monday morning, including an energy facility on the outskirts of Kharkiv. None of these reports carries a Russian account of the strikes. ^{[3, 4]}

On Monday, CNN reported, Mr. Zelenskyy said 'there were Russian violations of the energy ceasefire announced by President Trump', and added: 'Last night, Russian oil refineries were not burning, but at midnight, a Russian jet-powered Shahed struck a gas production facility in Ukraine'. A source close to him told CNN that Ukraine was not attacking Russian oil refineries while it waits for clarity from the US side. The AP reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday shut down a data center run by Yandex in the Russian city of Vladimir, a target outside the energy system. ^{[3, 5]}

A claim made once before

This is the second such announcement in a month. The AP reported that on Monday 14 September the President claimed both countries had agreed 'not to hit' each other's energy infrastructure, offered no details, and that nothing came of it. Meduza, citing the Financial Times, reported at the time that Moscow had not agreed to any deal and had not commented, and that the Financial Times' sources said Mr. Putin did not want such an agreement before winter. ^{[3, 7]}

How the oil market read it

Agence France-Presse reported on Monday that both main crude contracts sank more than one percent at one point after the announcement, reversing an initial rise that followed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend. According to AFP's figures at about 08:10 GMT, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was down 0.8 percent at $91.09 a barrel and Brent, the North Sea benchmark, was down 0.5 percent at $104.17. The page's address still carries an earlier wording of its headline, 'stocks rise as oil prices tumble'; in the revision the page timestamps 10:30 the headline reads 'Stocks mixed as oil prices slip'. ^[6]

AFP quoted Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, who wrote that 'the market is no longer paying full geopolitical premium on every headline', meaning traders are adding less to the price for each new report of conflict, and that a strike matters 'if it threatens real barrels, shipping lanes, refining capacity or insurance costs'. ^[6]

What settles it next

No date has been set for anything that would confirm the truce. What would settle it is a statement from Moscow: Mr. Peskov said, according to NBC News, that the Kremlin would say so when it had anything to say, and CNN reported that it had asked the White House and the Kremlin how the agreement was reached. Mr. Zelenskyy said Ukraine was awaiting details from the American side, CNN reported. The dated record in the series is the Treasury's: General License 135 lapses at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on Wednesday 7 April 2027 unless it is extended. ^{[1, 4, 5]}

Who it reaches

The link to fuel runs through refineries. The AP reported that the President has sought to blame record US diesel prices on Ukraine rather than on the war in Iran, and CNN reported that Ukraine has used domestically made drones to strike Russian oil refining facilities. PBF Energy files that its six refineries include Delaware City, Delaware, and Paulsboro, New Jersey. Valero Energy files that it owns 15 refineries in the United States, Canada and Britain with combined throughput capacity of about 3.2 million barrels a day. Global Partners files that it owns, controls or has access to a terminal network for refined products spanning Maine to Florida and into the Gulf States. All three sell in the diesel market the truce and the license are aimed at; the record holds no cargo of licensed Russian diesel bound for any of them. ^{[3, 5, 8, 9, 10]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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