The OPEC headquarters in Vienna, a pale multi-storey office block with narrow vertical windows and the blue OPEC emblem at its corner, seen from a sunny street with parked cars and bicycles · C.Stadler/Bwag, via Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

Article · 2026-10-05 · 8 min read · Crude oil supply · Futures

OPEC+ holds November quotas while the Gulf pumps millions below

Seven OPEC+ countries kept November's quotas at September's level on Sunday 4 October, about 31 million barrels a day in all; by OPEC's own count Saudi Arabia pumped 7,352 thousand barrels a day in July against a quota of 10,353, by the IEA's it was 4.45 million barrels a day under its quota in August, Kazakhstan and Oman pumped above theirs, and the capacity review meant to guide the 2027 quotas runs to the beginning of November.

By the desk. Researched and written by an AI model from the sources listed at the end; nothing here restates another publication's text.

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What the seven decided

Seven members of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, met by video on Sunday 4 October and 'decided to maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026'. Required production is OPEC's term for each country's quota, the crude it has agreed to pump, and it works as a ceiling: the seven have pledged to 'fully compensate for any overproduced volume', oil pumped above it. OPEC's table sets November at 10,478 thousand barrels a day for Saudi Arabia, 9,949 for Russia, 4,431 for Iraq, 2,676 for Kuwait, 1,628 for Kazakhstan, 1,007 for Algeria and 841 for Oman, 31,010 in all by the desk's sum, the 31 million barrels a day The National reported. It is the second month in a row without a change, after six months of increases, and the seven meet next on Sunday 1 November. ^{[1, 3, 10, 11]}

The same day the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a separate group of ministers that, Reuters noted, does not decide policy, reviewed production for July and August and 'noted the overall conformity' of the countries in the Declaration of Cooperation, the pact OPEC and its allies signed on 10 December 2016. It stressed 'the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy', said that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is costly and takes a long time, and set its next meeting for Sunday 29 November. ^{[2, 4, 11]}

Argus wrote that the decision would change little soon. Production in several Gulf countries has been severely affected by the war and by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which, in its words, 'has left the Gulf members of the Opec+ alliance unable to meet their quotas, meaning today's decision is unlikely to affect production in the near term'. Reuters had reported in July, it recalled on 30 September, that the group was likely to make no changes to its targets in the last three months of the year as it turns its focus to negotiating the quotas for 2027. ^{[12, 11]}

One layer left

The quotas were built in layers, and Sunday's table has only the oldest one left in it. On 5 October 2022 the whole group agreed to 'Adjust downward the overall production by 2 mb/d from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022', 2 million barrels a day, and it has since kept its production levels in force until 31 December 2026, a date it reaffirmed on 7 June. Reuters calls what remains 'one more layer of production cuts of about 2 million bpd covering most members through the end of 2026'; The National calls it two million barrels a day of cuts, agreed in 2022, kept until the end of the year. Above it sat voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels a day announced in April 2023, which the group returned in monthly steps, 188 thousand barrels a day for July among them; Reuters and The National report that the return was completed in September. ^{[6, 5, 4, 11, 3, 10]}

What remains is the whole group's ceiling. By the desk's comparison of the two tables, every figure in Sunday's table is the one the full OPEC+ group set in December 2024 as its 'Required Production Levels for 2025 and 2026', from Saudi Arabia's 10,478 to Oman's 841, levels that table marks as 'before applying any additional production adjustments'. The same table gave the United Arab Emirates 3,519. The UAE left OPEC in May 'following years of frustration with the cartel's production limits', Al-Monitor reported; Argus wrote that the exit 'has given it the freedom to increase crude production and exports', and OPEC's August report counted the UAE at 3,780 thousand barrels a day in July. ^{[5, 1, 15, 14, 7]}

Work on the 2027 quotas is under way. In December 2024 the group extended the period of an assessment 'by the three independent sources' to 'the beginning of November 2026, to be used as guidance for 2027 reference production levels', and on 7 June it affirmed 'the importance of completing the maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) assessment for all DoC countries to be used as reference for 2027 production baselines', meaning the most each country can pump and keep pumping. Reuters reported that those baselines 'will determine future quotas' and that the US consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to submit its report on capacity soon. The IEA publishes its own estimates of the capacity a country can reach within 90 days and sustain: 12.11 million barrels a day for Saudi Arabia, 4.87 million for Iraq, 2.88 million for Kuwait and 9.3 million for Russia, below the 9.89 million target the agency lists for it. Iraq threatened in June to consider leaving OPEC if it was not granted a higher quota, according to people familiar with the matter, and its prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, said in July that it would stay and seek a 'fair' quota, Al-Monitor reported. ^{[5, 4, 11, 9, 15]}

Quotas against barrels

OPEC measures members against their ceilings with 'the average of the approved seven secondary sources', estimates made by others as opposed to the figures countries report themselves, and its report of 12 August gives the count for July. Saudi Arabia pumped 7,352 thousand barrels a day against a July quota of 10,353, about 3.0 million barrels a day short by the desk's arithmetic; Iraq 2,621 against 4,378, short by 1,757; Kuwait 1,845 against 2,644, short by 799. In the last three months of 2025, before the war began on 28 February, the same count had Saudi Arabia at 10,043, Iraq at 4,094 and Kuwait at 2,564; in May, Iraq's output was 1,525 and Kuwait's 573. ^{[5, 7, 3, 10]}

The other four sit closer to their lines, and two are over them. Russia pumped 8,887 against 9,824, short by 937; Algeria 995, exactly its quota; Kazakhstan 1,670 against 1,608 and Oman 926 against 831, over by 62 and 95, by the desk's arithmetic. Together the seven pumped 24,296 thousand barrels a day in July against quotas summing to 30,633, about 6.3 million short, and Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait account for about 5.6 million of that gap, by the same arithmetic. ^{[7, 3]}

The counts do not agree, and the gaps are wide. Saudi Arabia's own report to OPEC put its July production at 8,202 thousand barrels a day, and the International Energy Agency's September report put its July supply at 8.24 million, against the 7,352 thousand of OPEC's secondary sources, a difference of 888 thousand barrels a day between the agency and the secondary sources by the desk's arithmetic. For Oman, OPEC's count of 926 thousand put it over its quota; the IEA's 0.83 million put it about on its quota of 831 thousand. Every count still shows what The National reported on Sunday: most members are producing below their targets because of the war. ^{[7, 9, 3, 10]}

August, and the strait

OPEC's September report, issued on 10 September with its count for August, could not be read for this piece, so August appears here as others counted it. The IEA's report of 11 September does its own subtraction. In August, it says, Saudi Arabia supplied 5.97 million barrels a day, 4.45 million below its implied target of 10.42 million, after 8.24 million in July; Kuwait 2.04 million, 0.62 million below; Iraq 3.86 million, 0.55 million below; Russia 8.36 million, 1.53 million below; Kazakhstan 1.9 million, 0.28 million above; Oman 0.03 million above and Algeria 0.02 million below. The 18 countries the agency counts in the deal that began in November 2022 supplied 27.0 million against a target of 34.27 million, 7.26 million short, and more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output remained shut in, the agency wrote. ^{[8, 7, 9]}

Saudi Arabia's own figure for August was 6.238 million barrels a day, down 1.9 million and its lowest since 1990, Al-Monitor reported from Bloomberg, with exports of 3.2 million barrels a day by the ship-tracking firm Kpler's count, the lowest in 13 years; Al-Monitor adds that Yemen's Houthis declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in July. Reuters reported from OPEC data that the seven produced 25.0 million barrels a day in August, roughly 5 million below their level in February, before the war. Argus, counting every member that has a quota, put August output around 5.7 million barrels a day below February's, by its own estimates. ^{[15, 11, 12]}

The sources describe the strait itself differently. The National wrote on Sunday that it 'has been effectively shut' since fighting between the US and Iran began, and that Tehran's demands include the lifting of a US naval blockade. The IEA wrote that crude losses from the Gulf appear to have narrowed in August to just below 45 percent, helped by flows that bypass the strait and by US military escorts through it. Argus reported on Friday 2 October that 12.34 million barrels a day of crude crossed the strait in the week to 30 September by TankerTrackers.com's count, around 80 percent of February's level as Vortexa estimates it, and that the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged six attacks in five days, particularly on the southern transit route the United States assists. Saudi Arabia's 7 million barrel a day pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea was shut by drone attacks on 10 September and loadings there resumed around 23 to 24 September; Saudi Aramco sold at least 90 million barrels of crude loading at its Ras Tanura terminal inside the Gulf, and Saudi loadings reached nearly 9 million barrels a day from 22 to 28 September, the highest weekly level since late 2022 by Vortexa's data, Argus reported on Monday 5 October. ^{[10, 9, 13, 14]}

What settles it next

The dated records still to come. Tuesday 13 October, when OPEC's October report brings its count for September, the month the Yanbu pipeline shut and Saudi loadings recovered. Sunday 1 November, the seven's next meeting. The beginning of November, when the capacity assessment meant to guide the 2027 levels is due to end. Sunday 29 November, the monitoring committee's 69th meeting and the 42nd meeting of all OPEC+ ministers. And 31 December 2026, when both the group's current production levels and the period for making up past overproduction run out. ^{[8, 14, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3]}

Who it reaches

Saudi Aramco, which loads the kingdom's crude at Ras Tanura, is not listed in the United States. Four companies that are listed there are reached through fields or ships of their own. Chevron holds 50 percent of Tengizchevroil in Kazakhstan and produces in the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait; about 17 percent of its net oil-equivalent production in the first half of 2026 came from OPEC+ member countries, and its quarterly report names curtailments in the Partitioned Zone due to the Middle East conflict. Exxon Mobil holds 25 percent of Tengizchevroil and 16.8 percent of the Kashagan field, and its annual report counts 'the level of, and adherence by, participating countries to production quotas established by OPEC or OPEC+' among the factors that shape supply. Occidental, by its annual report the largest independent oil producer in Oman, with a share there of 72,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2025, also works in Algeria and lists 'OPEC production restrictions' among the risks to its international operations. Frontline, an owner of crude tankers, reported that a significant number of vessels remained committed to Arabian Gulf trades, 'whether idle within the Gulf, engaged in shuttle employment across the strait, or loading at Fujairah and along the Omani coast', and names OPEC production decisions among the factors in its outlook. ^{[14, 16, 17, 18, 19]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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