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Article · 2026-09-29 · 5 min read · The consumer and jobs · World and macro

Consumer confidence sinks to its lowest since 2014

The Conference Board's index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest reading since April 2014 by the Associated Press's account, with fuel prices leading the write-ins and 68.4 percent now expecting higher interest rates; the same morning the government counted 7.1 million job openings, little changed, and CarMax reported used-car sales up 13.8 percent in its summer quarter.

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What the survey found

The Conference Board said on Tuesday 29 September that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August. Its measure of how people see conditions now dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, and its measure of what they expect over the next six months fell 5.9 points to 63.6, a third monthly decline in a row. The Associated Press reported that it is the lowest reading in the survey since April 2014 and below the lowest of the pandemic. Answers were collected from 1 to 23 September, a period the board notes 'included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions'. ^{[1, 2]}

The board's chief economist, Dana Peterson, said consumers' view of current business conditions 'became negative for the first time since September 2024', and that references to prices 'and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September's surge in fuel costs.' Average expected inflation over the next twelve months rose to 6.1 percent, the median to 5.1 percent, and the share expecting higher interest rates jumped 5.2 points to 68.4 percent, the release says. ^[1]

The share of people calling their family's finances 'bad' overtook the share calling them 'good', which the board says has happened twice since it began asking four years ago. Plans to buy cars and homes each slipped slightly on a six-month average, and planned spending on services pulled back again, while 42.6 percent said they plan a vacation in the next six months. ^[1]

The jobs figures the same morning

At the same hour the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings were 'little changed at 7.1 million' in August, a rate of 4.3 percent. Its table puts them at 7,079,000, from a July figure it revised up by 64,000 to 7,335,000. Hires were 5.2 million, quits 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges 1.6 million, all little changed, the bureau said. ^[3]

The AP set the survey beside the government's other recent figures: consumer prices up 3.4 percent in August from a year earlier, a regular gallon of gasoline averaging $4.46, average hourly pay up 3.1 percent over the year, the weakest since May 2021, and the Federal Reserve's quarter-point increase of two weeks ago, its first since 2023. ^[2]

What one filer reported

The survey measures moods; the filings measure sales, and on Tuesday they did not point the same way. CarMax reported that in its quarter to 31 August its retail used-car sales rose 13.8 percent to 227,391 vehicles, comparable-store used units 13.0 percent and total net revenues 19.5 percent to $7.9 billion, with gross profit per retail car $111 lower after what it called pricing actions implemented to support an improved sales trend. Its lending arm financed 22 percent of the loans in the credit segment it calls Tier 2, against 10 percent a year earlier, and set aside $113.4 million for loan losses, against $142.2 million a year before, the company said. ^[4]

CarMax's own list of risks names 'fluctuating interest rates, tariffs' and 'the conflict in the Middle East' among the economic conditions that could change its results. It said it will resume buying back its shares in the current quarter and give a strategic update on 3 November. ^[4]

What settles it next

Each document names its next date. The Conference Board publishes the index at 10 a.m. Eastern on the last Tuesday of every month, which puts October's reading on 27 October; the bureau's September job openings report is scheduled for 3 November; and CarMax's strategic update is on 3 November. The September figures are preliminary, the board notes, with a survey cutoff of 23 September. ^{[1, 3, 4]}

Sources

Every stock is a company; the desk grades the company behind the stock. This article describes; it does not recommend. Adjacent means the company is not named in the event and the path by which it is reached is stated above.

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